COP16: What is at risk in Colombia and the world if the Amazon continues to lose its biodiversity and crosses the so-called 'tipping point'?

Whether it rains in Bogotá or Lima, as it does in much of South America, depends on what happens in the Amazon. But whether the climate is stable in Europe or Asia also has a lot to do with not releasing the nearly 140 billion tons of carbon dioxide sequestered by this immense jungle, which covers 7 million square kilometers in nine countries and is also home to enormous biodiversity.

Although it covers only 0.5% of the world's land area, it is home to 13% of all known species, including 50,000 plant species, 100,000 insects, 3,000 fish, 1,300 birds, 800 amphibians and reptiles, and 350 primates. In fact, studies show that there are more tree species in one hectare of the Amazon than in all of Europe. But all this wealth, as well as its ability to act as a natural regulator of the world's climate, could be lost.    (Follow all the news of COP16 here) 

The Amazon is heading for collapse, a situation that scientists have catalogued as a "tipping point" where it could change from a rainforest to a savanna, losing some of its ability to continue providing ecosystem services such as regulating the global climate or managing the region's water. This could happen in the coming decades, which is why experts say that taking action to curb the problems that are currently destroying this forest is urgent and cannot be postponed. 

This was one of the conclusions of the session "Biodiversity and safe space for humanity. Limits and thresholds in the Amazon", the fourth of the Biodiversity Connection Forums, a series of fourteen conferences to discuss biodiversity on the road to COP16, organized by the National Environmental Forum and the Ministry of the Environment, in collaboration with other actors such as EL TIEMPO, WWF Colombia, the Mayor's Office of Cali, the Swedish Embassy in Colombia, UNEP and Noticias Caracol.

(Take a look: What is it, why is it important, and what is COP16 leaving behind for Colombia?)

According to Carlos Nobre, a member of the Amazon Scientific and one of the world's leading experts on the ecosystem, the Amazon has the capacity to recycle water up to eight times thanks to evapotranspiration, transporting it throughout the ecosystem, but also across the continent, bringing rainfall to much of the Andes and the region, which is key to agriculture and the livelihoods of cities throughout the region.

"Water vapor coming from the Atlantic Ocean is recycled five to eight times in the Amazon. Then it goes west and is carried by clouds to the Andes and central South America. These are called air currents, and they are absolutely essential for the biodiversity of many of these ecosystems. Unfortunately, since the 1970s, we have seen many governments in Brazil start to get rid of the rainforest and try to change the traditional agriculture that was there. There was a lot of deforestation, a lot of degradation," the Brazilian researcher said. 

According to the expert, who has a doctorate in meteorology, the Amazon is likely to reach a tipping point due to three factors: an increase in the length of the dry season, an increase in the atmospheric water vapor deficit, and an increase in tree mortality. This is a reality reflected in the droughts caused by the El Niño phenomenon, recorded in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2016, 2023 and 2024, with temperatures above 41 degrees Celsius, causing thousands of deaths of fish and other species.

For him, the biggest warning is that despite a decrease in deforestation last year, there was a significant increase in forest fires, especially in the southern Amazon. In addition, 20% of the deforested area has been abandoned, in part because most of the Amazon is infertile due to its composition.

In his opinion, it is necessary to address the main drivers of deforestation already identified in Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia and Peru: soy and palm oil production and cattle ranching. In addition, the global scenario also affects the Amazon, as rising temperatures cause degradation within the ecosystem.

"Global warming and deforestation have contributed to an increase in the length of the dry season, which has become hotter and even drier, an increase in the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, an increase in the mortality rate of trees, and the southeastern Amazon has become a source of carbon dioxide emissions," the scientist noted.

Nobre also stresses that the solution is a large-scale regional initiative to restore the ecosystem in the areas where degradation has been identified, known as the "Amazon deforestation arcs", one located in southern Brazil and the other in the northwest of the ecosystem, encoming Colombia, Peru and Ecuador.

"We need to work on a large scale to avoid this point of no return and achieve restoration. We need to turn 'deforestation arcs' into 'restoration arcs'. We need to restore at least 500,000 square kilometers. We need to do this urgently because most of the Amazon forest is still absorbing CO2," he stressed.

For her part, Dolors Armenteras, a professor at the National University (Unal) and head of the Landscape Ecology and Ecosystem Modeling group, pointed out that even from a less macro perspective, the loss of a single tree means that the ecosystem can no longer evapotranspire 1,000 liters of water.

"Why do we really care about these trees being cut down in the Amazon? Every one of those trees that is no longer standing is changing this water cycle that starts with the moisture that comes from the ocean and that the trees begin to absorb, evaporate and evapotranspire through their roots. What happens every time a tree is cut down? A tree can evapotranspire up to 1,000 liters a day," says Armenteras.

The expert, who also participated in the research developed by the Amazon Scientific , pointed out that if all the factors that influence the degradation of the ecosystem - which means that the area loses its health, capacity, biomass and species - are considered and added up, it is clear that at least 2.5 million square kilometers are degraded.

The first step, she says, is to prevent deforestation, then reduce it when it occurs, or reverse it when it has already occurred. "In countries where deforestation is still high, it needs to be stopped. Not just quantify it and monitor it, but really address the causes on the ground," she stressed.

Armenteras also stressed that one issue that is not talked about enough is how illegal activities are becoming a major driver of deforestation in the region, where the main drivers of forest loss have been primarily agricultural. "There is one issue I would like to discuss and that is illegalities and criminality: because it is an issue that we cannot ignore, especially in the Northwest Amazon," Armenteras warned.

Finally, José Manuel Ochoa, manager of the Center for Socio-ecological Studies and Global Change at the Humboldt Institute, pointed out that several studies they have developed show that of the nearly 220,000 hectares lost in Colombia in 2017, it was found that 6,000 species, including birds and mammals, may have been affected. Furthermore, when ecological thresholds were considered, it was found that at the threshold, between one and two species are lost per 1,000 hectares of deforested forest, but above the threshold, between six and eight species are lost.

"The issue of transformation thresholds becomes very important because it helps us understand how long it could last and what are the consequences of not withstanding these changes generated by transformation and land use. The thresholds are what allow us to raise our voices, but what we would like to do is take it to the decision-making level," Ochoa said.

In that sense, the researcher said, one of the consequences of deforestation reaching more and more isolated places is the loss of unknown biodiversity, with plant species that could be, for example, the world's next superfood or the cure for a disease.

"It is one thing to have an impact on the species we know, but in megadiverse countries like Colombia and Brazil, where we still do not know much about this diversity, the species we could lose could be much greater because we do not know them," the scientist emphasized.

In this sense, according to him, the protection and restoration of the Amazon should be one of the main debates that arise during the COP on Biodiversity: "Why is it important to have all this knowledge, especially in the context of COP16, which will be held in Colombia? Well, because it helps us think about how these decisions can be made, and I think this is a very important issue," he concluded.

EDWIN CAICEDO

Environment and Health Journalist

@CaicedoUcros